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Admin06.12.2021

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough (USRECDM)

We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods.
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Admin04.12.2021

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough

As one can see, the fact that the is currently rising does not mean anything — the last two times recession hit the economy despite it previously expanding.
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Admin05.02.2022

Economic Winners Versus Losers and the Unequal Pandemic Recession

Following these signs can give Foolish investors a good idea of our current spot in the economic cycle.
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Admin01.01.2022

NBER’s Big

Data for Q2 supported the consensus view that severe winter weather was responsible for the Q1 contraction -- that it was not the beginnings of a business cycle decline.
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Admin10.01.2022

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity

Well, investors may just take them on faith.
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Admin27.11.2021

NBER’s Recession Indicators And Gold

For example, the determination of the peak date in December 2007 occurred 11 months after it actually happened.
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Admin06.12.2021

GDP

See my below on recession boundaries.
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Admin02.02.2022

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough

A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.
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Admin09.01.2022

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough (USRECDM)

In fact, taking our proprietary implementation of the Big-4 index, and comparing it to the last 8 expansions, shows just how meek this recovery has been: There is one final interesting observation though — for the first time this expansion, the co-incident data is coinciding with the made from 21 leading data series and first for February 2016.
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Admin22.01.2022

NBER’s Recession Indicators and Gold

A recession is the period between a peak of economic activity and its subsequent trough, or lowest point.
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